How declining enrollment and confidence in higher education is impacting us?

As PA educators, I believe it is important to have a finger of the pulse of what is happening in higher education because it directly or indirectly affects us. I also appreciate that trying to keep up with everything education as a faculty member is challenging, in addition to keeping up with things medically. Part of why I write this newsletter/blog is to do some of that work for you and provide you with the essence of what is presented in the research relative to education. So in this newsletter, I focus my attention on two ongoing issues in higher education – declining admissions and the historically low confidence level in higher education. These two issues impact us directly, decreasing applicant pool,  increased applicant ‘melt,’ and institutional demands to take more students.

Each year, every PA program works to fill its incoming class. Waitlists are a common tool to ensure that we have a full complement of students by the time of orientation. However, it seems to be getting more challenging each year, especially since the pandemic. Despite the PA profession continuing to be listed as one of the best jobs, there is something else happening in higher education that is important to note.

An interesting series of events happened recently that got me thinking. A program I am working for experienced what seemed to be an unusually high “melt” of accepted applicants to the program. While we all expect melt to happen, it seemed a little different this year. Some of the most significant melt occurred just days before orientation. There also appears to be a lot more melt to the point of going through the entire waitlist in an attempt to fill the class. Thus, waitlists have become longer.

Yes, some of this could be an effect of having over 300 PA programs in the country, so applicants have many choices. But, I believe there are other things in play because, over the past two years, melt has happened once students were in the program. Students mid-program were changing their minds about finishing the program and their degrees. They either weren’t sure they still wanted to continue to pursue being a PA, or given the experience of the pandemic, they changed their mind about pursuing a career in health care.

Inside Higher Ed and The Chronicles of Higher Education have been tracking these two issues. Both recently published articles about the historic low confidence levels in higher education in the US and declining admissions. A recent Gallup poll showed that the confidence level had dropped over 20% from 57% in 2015 to 36% today (Blake, 2023; Schermele, 2023). The drop in confidence is multifactorial. Data shows that the political climate and divide appear to be playing a significant role, as does public opinion across age, gender, and education levels. Some of the biggest drops were seen in individuals who identify as Republicans (37%), individuals without a college degree (25%), women (22%), and those ages 55 and older (24%). Those ages 18-34 showed the second highest confidence decline (18%) (Blake, 2023).

However, it is important to put this in a great context. Higher education ranks fourth overall in terms of trusted institutions, behind small businesses, the military, and the police (Blake, 2023). It is also important to mention that this data collection occurred before the recent Supreme Court decisions striking down affirmative action and loan forgiveness (Schermele, 2023).

Enrollment has been in a downward trajectory since 2011, with some of the largest changes seen since 2015 (National Student Clearing House Research Center 2012 -2022). The decline has been reflected in undergraduate and graduate student enrollments across various age groups and part or full-time status. The net result has been an overall decline in enrollments in institutions of higher education. The decline has hit all higher education sectors, including 4-year public, 4-year private nonprofit, 4-year for-profit, and 2-year community colleges. Four-year for-profit institutions have continuously been the hardest hit, followed by 2-year community colleges.

From spring 2015 to spring 2019, 4-year for-profit institutions saw the greatest enrollment decline ranging from a low of 6.8% in the spring of 2018 to double digits declines for fall 2015, 2016 and 2018, and spring 2017. The highest decline was in spring 2019 at 19.7%. Four-year private nonprofit institutions and 4-year public institutions experienced a mixture of enrollment declines and increases during this same time frame. However, the percentages of these changes were generally less than 3%.

In the most recent report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, declining enrollments are starting to level off. Two-year community colleges are starting to see slight increases. Four-year private for-profit institutions are showing slight increases over the past year. Public and 4-year private nonprofit university declines are much less, .5% and .2%, respectively. However, graduate-level enrollment is still down but is showing signs of slowing.

Institutions continue to face multifactorial and significant financial losses. The decline in enrollments and the decay of confidence in higher education only compound the problem, which is further exasperated by increases in the cost of education and dwindling financial support for students. As a graduate entry-level program, our future students come from community colleges and undergraduate institutions or from high schools for those with combined undergraduate-graduate programs. Being aware of all of these factors impacting the landscape of higher education is essential as you and your institution think about and make decisions for and about the future of your program.

Resources

Blake, J. (2023). American Confidence in Higher Ed Hits Historical Low. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-health/2023/07/11/american-confidence-higher-ed-hits-historic-low

Johnson, E. (2019). Fall Enrollments Still on Decline. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2019/12/16/fall-enrollments-still-decline

Fain, P. (2019).College Enrollment Declines Continue. Inside Higher Ed https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2019/05/30/college-enrollment-declines-continue

Fain, P. (2018).Latest Data on Enrollment Declines. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2018/05/29/new-data-enrollment-and-where-declines-are-greatest

Fain, P. (2017). Enrollment Slide Continues, at Slower Rate. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/12/20/national-enrollments-decline-sixth-straight-year-slower-rate

Knox, L. (2023). Leveling Off at the Bottom. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/admissions/traditional-age/2023/05/24/leveling-bottom

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2023). Current Term Enrollment – Spring 2023.https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/CTEE_Report_Spring_2023.pdf

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2022). Current Term Enrollment – Spring 2020.https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/CTEE_Report_Spring_2020.pdf

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2018). Current Term Enrollment – Spring 2018. https://nscresearchcenter.org/currenttermenrollmentestimate-spring2018/

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2012). Current Term Enrollment – Fall 2014 https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/CurrentTermEnrollment-Fall2014.pdf

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2012). Current Term Enrollment – Fall 2012.https://nscresearchcenter.org/currenttermenrollmentestimate-fall2012/

Schermele, Z. (2023). Public Trust in Higher Ed has Plummeted. Yes, Again. The Chronicle of Higher Ed https://www.chronicle.com/article/public-trust-in-higher-ed-has-plummeted-yes-again

Weissman, S. (2021). Steep Enrollment Declines This Spring. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2021/04/29/spring-brings-even-steeper-enrollment-declines